JAN. 9, 2003
Warm today ... gone with the wind tomorrow
Lots of wind always means atmospheric volatility ... and that's exactly what's happening. The promised cold blob of air begins arriving tomorrow, and signs are that it will last for a while. So enjoy today's 60s while they last. You probably won't see them again until at least February, maybe March.
The National Weather Service at Wakefield, Va., made an interesting note yesterday morning in its forecast discussion: Temperatures aloft were warmer in a stripe from Idaho to Virginia than they were over Florida and Cuba. That's weird in January. Funny things happen before changes. It's this warm charge aloft that's helping drive the surface winds, which are gusting close to 60 mph on some mountaintops.
As for the chances of a winter storm during my Jan. 14-17 window next week: the ultraconservative government meteorologists aren't buying it right now, but several private forecasters are speculating about the possibility of such a storm, especially toward the later part of that period.
All parties are looking for consistency in a series of computer forecast models, and right now, they're not seeing much of it in that window. Government forecasters usually take that as a sign that nothing big is likely to happen, while private forecasters often see it as a sign that there is something big the computers can't quite get their little silicon-chip minds around.
The truth is often in between.
Roanoke's record high for January 9 is 66. I don't think we'll quite make that.
JAN. 7
SHOW US WHAT YOU GOT, EL NINO
Mighty El Nino is a wimp this year.
But if El Nino can still punch a few jabs into the cold guts of Old Man Winter, you can get your cross-country skis and snowshoes out for the second half of January.
El Nino is a phenomenon where ocean currents heat up from the western coast of
Peru to the middle of the Pacific Ocean. This event, which occurs every few years, has been linked to all kinds of weather mayhem around the world, and the meteorologically challenged national media has further tied it to stock prices, UFO sightings, boy bands and the West Nile virus. I think Democrats are still blaming El Nino for Gore losing to Bush -- and Republicans are blaming El Nino for Bill Clinton.
Over time, you can draw a pretty good correlation between strong El Nino and warm, wet winters for us. 1997-98 was a recent example for us, when it rained a lot but rarely got cold enough to snow.
But this El Nino is a weakling, and it's fading, at least for the moment. If you look at an ocean temperature map from 1997-98, there's a huge red streak like blood from the coast of Peru way out into the ocean. If you look at the same kind of map now, there's a puny yellow stain out in the middle of the ocean. That's your El Nino. Big whoop.
What El Nino does is supply energy to the southern branch of the jet stream, which is what brings wet storms our way out of the Pacific and into the Gulf of Mexico. In a strong El Nino year, this southern branch looks like it's on steroids and overpowers cold air masses that try to make it winter. In a weak El Nino year, the southern branch still brings in some wet but enough cold gets down from time to time for a little white -- or a lot of white, depending on how big and bad the northern branch of the jet stream is.
So the question now is this: Does El Nino have the cahones to keep that southern conveyor belt rolling even as the Arctic opens up later this week for some cold-blooded dealing with the Lower 48?
If it doesn't, the upcoming cold air mass that begins arriving this weekend may be largely a dry, windy one. If it does, then dust off the skis. You might need them to get to work.
EVERYONE KNOWS IT'S WINDY
This week should be pretty placid in terms of precipitation -- but you might want to put a little extra mousse to keep your hair in place.
With a surge of warmth the next couple of days, maybe as high as the 60s briefly, then a surge of cold for the weekend, there is going to be lots of wind this week. The National Weather Service is warning of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in mountain areas tonight. Forecaster Joe Bastardi of accuweather.com has whispered the possibility of some 70 mph winds in parts of the Appalachians by Thursday.
STICK TO FOOTBALL, MR. VICK
In an Associated Press story, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick is asked about playing on the frozen tundra of Green Bay's Lambeau Field.
Vick said he isn't bothered by the cold because he grew up in Virginia.
"I played at Virginia Tech, where it snowed almost every day in December," he said.
Whoa, whoa, whoa, No. 7! Let's get real. Blacksburg can be kind of blustery sometimes, but it's NO Green Bay. Furthermore -- you grew up in Tidewater, hardly an enclave of wintry weather.
Maybe Vick was right about not being bothered by the cold -- he passed for 117 yards and ran for 64 in a 27-7 Falcons win in snow. But he should not put his football career on hold to pursue a lucrative career in climatology.
MONDAY, JANAURY 6, 2002
Blown away
If you live in the Roanoke Valley, you may have noticed less snow on the ground this morning than when you went to bed last night. The temperature did in fact rise a few degrees overnight. As of 9 a.m. it was 40.
The main reason is southwest winds sweeping ahead of the next in the series of "clipper" lows. The warming was further enhanced by the southwest winds "downsloping" into the Roanoke Valley. Out west, when west winds dive off the Rockies into the High Plains, it produces what is known as a chinook -- a rapidly warming wind. Chinook means "snow eater" in the language of one Native American tribe. The air warms as it is compressed toward the lower elevations. What we experienced is sort of a mini-chinook -- and it did indeed eat away at the snow
This week looks pretty placid. Next week could be much different.
JANUARY 5, 2003
Snowy Sunday
When I took a long look at the Sunday morning sky as I walked my dog, I knew that we weren't going to be waiting until mid-month to get our next significant snow. That slate-gray "It looks like snow" sky and disappearing mountain ridges in the distance, plus a colorful radar screen, told of an impending ground-whitening snowfall.
The surprise wasn't that it snowed, but how intense it was for a short time Sunday just as many area residents settled into their church pews. The system -- an Alberta clipper, a fast southeast-moving low originating in Canada -- had a little more kick to it than we thought, and dug a bit farther south. As a result, we got an inch and a half in the Roanoke Valley in only about 2 hours of serious snowfall, with 1-3 common across Southwest Virginia and some amounts as much as 5 inches.
We have a similar system hot on its heels (or maybe, more properly, cold on its heels) for Monday afternoon and evening. Another quick burst of snow? I'm still skeptical of its strength and available moisture, coming in so close to this one. I say a few flakes, fewer than today.
Area snow totals for Sunday at: iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/va/public.html
January 3, 2003
THE BLOB IS COMING
Shiver your timbers, it's gonna get cold.
Give it about a week, maybe a tad more, and some real Arctic air with love from Russia is going to come a-roaring over the Alleghenies and down the Shenandoah Valley toward our lovely little Roanoke Valley. In the meantime, there are a few little maybe-maybe not snow systems to keep us occupied.
What happens in the course of a winter is that somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere there is a blob of really cold air. This blob gets moved around by the wiles of the jet stream, reshaped and pushed around like toothpaste in a tube. This blob has been parked over Siberia, which is a common home for the blob during the winter months. But a lot of things are happening in the atmosphere in various places around the world that are going to squeeze it out of Siberia and squirt it across Alaska and into Canada and the continental United States.
Until that happens, there are a few little upper-level lows to deal with. Think of these animals as little balls of energy way up in the atmosphere that can shake and stir whatever moisture there may be. One is coming through today, with a mix of rain and snow, any accumulations limited to higher elevations and areas north and west of Roanoke. It's a bigger deal for the Northeast, where there's better cold air and where a developing surface low will have time to throw some Atlantic moisture into the mix. It could be quite a large snowstorm up that way.
The second and third arrive Sunday and Tuesday, riding southeast on the jet stream. I'm not overly excited about either, as they're coming in almost too fast and too close together, and the air isn't all that cold. But as I said yesterday, any puny disturbance can be the next great snowstorm. I'm not expecting either of these to become a great snowstorm, but either or both could upstage my Jan. 14-17 guess for our next significant snow (which I will define as at least one inch at the Roanoke Regional Airport). The computer forecast models that meteorologists use are all over the place with both of these systems.
I'm going to be stubborn and stick to Jan. 14-17 because I'm not ready to buy into either of next week's offerings. They could both spin out flurries, rain showers or partly cloudy skies as easily as they could accumulate snow.
Once the Arctic air is established, there's no guarantee that there'll be flakiness to accompany it. But with solid cold air in place and a propensity this season for precipitation-bearing storm systems every 3-5 days, the odds seem to weigh heavily in favor of some winter precipitation. If the cold air gets firmly entrenched by say Jan. 11 or 12, 3-5 days after that would be, oh, about Jan. 14-17. It's admittedly a guess, but an educated one.
WRAPPING UP DECEMBER
December goes into the record books as the third consecutive drought-busting, above-normal precipitation month for both Roanoke and Blacksburg. Roanoke ended up with 3.92 inches of rain and melted snow, more than an inch above normal, while Blacksburg had 3.81 inches, just under an inch below normal. Both locations also averaged about 1 degree below normal on temperatures, continuing the November trend.
If it never snows another flake, Roanoke has had a snowier winter than last year, with 5.6 inches total for the month of December. Blacksburg had 9.3 inches, in both cases almost all represented by the Dec.4-5 winter storm. For the purposes of official precipitation records, sleet accumulation also counts as "snowfall."
Dec. 7 was the first day in nearly 7 years that Blacksburg went below zero. Under clear skies and a deep snow pack, the thermometer plunged to -1 that morning - it hadn't been below zero there since February 1996, the last severe winter our area has experienced. Roanoke was only 17 that morning.
Expect January to end up as another colder than normal, wetter than normal, whiter than normal month.
JANUARY 2, 2003
Where did this come from?
Turn your head for a moment, and the picture changes.
That’s what I love about winter weather forecasting. Any puny disturbance coming out of the Plains could be the next great East Coast snowstorm – and any next great East Coast snowstorm could be a partly cloudy afternoon. It keeps the mighty humbled.
A darkhorse upper level low that was not highly thought of by forecasters – as they previously focused more on the storm that rained on our New Years -- is probably going to spin up a pretty decent snowstorm.
But not for us.
A lot of things aren’t in sync for the ground to turn white in Roanoke. Arctic air, or even decently cold Canadian air, is not in place, and the thing’s coming in too far north – these systems usually need to dig a little deeper down toward the Gulf of Mexico for a favorable snow track here. It’s not going to make it much farther south than it is now (7 a.m. Thurs.Jan. 3), along the Arkansas-Missouri border. This one looks more like a Maryland to Massachusetts snowstorm.
But a few of you at the higher elevations, and to the north and west of here, may get dusted with a little snow tonight and tomorrow. A few fat wet flakes might make it to the floor of the Roanoke Valley at the end of a light rain tomorrow.
It could be a nibble of things farther down the table.
There’s a lots of buzzing in long-range forecasting circles about a potentially major Arctic outbreak over the central and eastern U.S. toward the end of next week. And there’s also some ominous looking storm systems next week.
More on all that tomorrow.
DECEMBER 31, 2002
Raindrops keep falling on the Cove
2002 will end and 2003 will begin rainy.
I would start a "When Will Carvins Cove Fill Up" contest, but I expect January will not end before the water is spilling over the dam again. In 1999-2000 it was 29 feet down and recovered in seven months. In 2002-03, it was 34 feet down and I’m projecting it will recover in five months.
Today is the end of our third straight month of above-average precipitation: that hasn’t happened since 1998, when we had five straight wet months to start the year. I’ll think we’ll match or beat that during this much-needed streak.
This wet Auld Lang Syne will put 1-2 inches in the gauges around here, as all acquaintance with the drought is forgot. It’s another low pressure system riding the jet stream out of the Gulf states, really the same relentless conveyor belt that has given us a steady diet of rain (and one good snow) since October.
This waterlogged pattern set up immediately after the taxpayer-supported Climate Prediction Center warned that there was no relief in sight from the drought. 2002 was a losing season for the folks at CPC. More on that some other time.
Yes, El Nino does play a role in this, but since everything on Earth has been blamed on El Nino at some point, I try to avoid its name.
Over the next couple of weeks, there are some signs that the conveyor belt may reconfigure, taking a steeper dip from western Canada to the eastern U.S. This will gradually shift us to a colder pattern, as systems start to come our way out of Canada, and will open the door for the possibility of winter storms by mid-month. I don’t think we’re talking brutal Arctic cold, just colder than average, and probably nothing sudden or quick, just something to watch for down the road.
My best guess for our next snow of any significance is around Jan. 14-17. But please don’t close the schools just yet.
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Copyright 2003