September 19, 2003
GOOD-BYE ISABEL
Isabel is FINALLY out of our picture, racing north toward Canada. I've written so much about her the past two weeks, I feel like I'm married to her.
She leaves behind millions without power in the North Carolina and Virginia, much beachfront damage from the Outer Banks to Norfolk, and lots of tree damage inland. Forecasters did an outstanding job overall in forecasting Isabel. The death toll appears to be low and mostly from secondary effects.
I have become a bit fatigued and will keep this short today, as there is not much else to say except to expect a lovely weekend in our area. There are signs of colder weather on the not too distant horizon, and we may not be done with hurricanes just yet. We'll do an Isabel wrapup at the regular column time next Tuesday, then move on.
Follow Isabel, what's left of her, via Associated Press' storm tracker. Click here.
Sept. 18, 8 p.m. update
HEAVY RAIN, GUSTS
The center of Isabel will pass between Richmond and Lynchburg tonight. It's near Roanoke Rapids, N.C., moving northwest.
Numerous trees and limbs have been reported down in the area, especially in Franklin and Bedford counties. A wind gust to 39 mph was reported between 6 and 7 p.m. at Roanoke Regional Airport, and apparently higher gusts are occurring in ridgetop areas.
All in all, it looks like Isabel is behaving as expected. Look for occasionally heavy rain and gusty winds to continue until after midnight and then taper through the day Friday. Don't be surprised if there's a beautiful sunset Friday evening.
Sept. 18, 1:30 p.m. update
RAIN, AND PLENTY OF IT
The very wide eye of Hurricane Isabel is starting to come ashore between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, N.C. It's kind of hard to pinpoint a single spot where the eye has come ashore because it is so large.
The Outer Banks up to Norfolk have been lashed with hurricane-force gusts and pounding waves for hours. The oceanfront damage toll will be high, and we haven't even got to the inland flooding/wind damage yet. It's way too early to talk figures, but I'm guessing we're talking about a billion-dollar storm.
My major concern for our area is how the rain shield has more quickly and solidly developed. It is obvious we are already in steady rain and likely to stay that way for another 8-12 hours, at least. This has me concerned that we could be toward the upper end of rain predictions, the 2-4 inch range, and then more serious flooding becomes a concern, especially with heavier squalls that will move through.
As of yet we have not had much wind in Roanoke. In fact, looking out the window here at the Roanoke County Public Library on Electric Road, chased here by the alarmingly slow modem speed on my home computer today, I can't tell the wind is blowing at all.
The wind field with Isabel is impressive in size. Elizabeth City, N.C., was more than 150 miles from the eye early this morning and was already having hurricane-force gusts. Langley Air Force Base in Virginia reported a 72-mph gust the past hour, even though the eye is coming in far south. I've seen 30-plus gusts as close as Danville, and as the afternoon wears on, you'll se the wind start to stir the trees more here. It's this evening between about 6-10 p.m. when the threat of any damage is greatest.
It looks like a rainy, windy afternoon and evening in Roanoke. Come to think of it, it's pretty fitting for this past year of weather. It would seem Isabel is going to end any hope we had of getting through September with below average rainfall. The beat, or rather the drip, goes on.
September 18, 2003
HERE COMES ISABEL
The end-game is finally under way with Isabel.
At 8 a.m., she's 110 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras moving northwest at 15 mph, which is a substantial increase in speed. That heading also represents a subtle version of the "left hook" we talked about yesterday, and will bring her in to the southwest of Cape Hatteras near Cape Lookout, N.C., by about midday. She looks like she's coming right at the area we've focused on since Monday.
Isabel's winds are 100 mph, down slightly from last night, a Category 2 hurricane. There was a buzz among some meteorologists last night when a reconaissance flight detected 140 mph winds at flight level, but the atmospheric structure of Isabel was preventing these from reaching the surface.
The entire Outer Banks are getting pounded by high surf and tropical-storm force winds this morning. Certainly, it will rearrange the beach and take out a few structures, but it does not appear to be a massive catastrophic strike like Hugo or Andrew. That's easy to say if it's not your home being taken out, though. Areas close to the eyewall in the Cape Hatteras-Cape Lookout-Morehead City areas will experience the most severe damage.
The first rain bands from Isabel are sweeping west between Richmond and Lynchburg as of mid-morning, and we may start seeing some of these by about the time she comes ashore at noon. Steadier rain will begin mid-afternoon, and heavy squalls should hit us in the evening hours. In Roanoke, it looks like a 30ish mph wind night with some 50ish gusts; gusts may reach 60 in ridgetop areas and places to the east of us closer to the center of Isabel, which is likely to run through the middle of the state.
With winds gusting out of the east and northeast, there may be more tree damage than would occur with a similar west wind. Trees are naturally braced for west winds, which are much more typical. They're also still fully leafed, whereas our windiest weather usually occurs when there are few leaves on the trees in winter. Expect some scattered power outages where limbs or trees blow into power lines. If you do have loose objects on your property, secure or remove them before the wind picks up.
I do not foresee massive flooding but perhaps some scattered small stream flooding in heavier rain bands. By the time Isabel gets our current dry air absolutely gooey with tropical moisture, she'll be headed away from us. I think this is a 1-2 inch rain for Roanoke, 3 at the most. A good rain, not a torrential downpour, though it may look like it at times when sheets of rain are blowing sideways for a few moments.
Isabel is a serious storm that will cause widespread misery over the mid-Atlantic today, but in Roanoke at least, I don't think her name will be breathed in loathing for years to come -- unless the rain or wind somehow directly factors into a Virginia Tech football loss tonight.
None of this is chiseled in stone yet, though. I'll keep an eye on that to make sure today, and we'll update again this afternoon with the latest.
September 17, 2003
WATCHING OUT FOR THE LEFT HOOK
Isabel is about 400 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, with 110 mph winds, making it a strong Category 2 storm. Moving north-northwest at 9 mph, it appears to be headed for a collision with the North Carolina coast Thursday afternoon. It will be rough all along the coast from Myrtle Beach to Chesapeake Bay, if not farther north. That much seems certain. It's the details that remain uncertain.
What is in question -- and it's a big concern as to how it will apply to our weather -- is the possibility of making a "left hook." Almost all forecast guidance shows Isabel taking on more of a northwest trajectory rather its current north-northwest heading, hence the continuing expectations that we first highlighted here on Monday that she will hit between Cape Hatteras and Morehead City. But with such a strong high over the North Atlantic (the cause of this gorgeous fall weather we've been having) actually expected to build west some, there remains some concern that Isabel might get thrown more steeply westward than that, either before or after landfall.
The short story on that:
>>If the left hook is sharp or early, she makes landfall near Morehead City or perhaps even more toward Wilmington, and we can expect widespread tropical storm conditions in our area about the time Texas A&M and Virginia Tech kickoff in Blacksburg on Thursday evening. That would mean steady 35-plus mph winds for hours, maybe 60 mph gusts or even higher on ridgetops, torrential downpours and a threat of tornadoes.
>>If the left hook is late or non-existent, then Isabel keeps her north-northwest trajectory longer and scrapes the entire length of the Outer Banks, causing major wind and tidal damage. If she left-hooks into Hampton Roads or into the Chesapeake Bay, she'll be among the nation's top historical multi-billion dollar disasters. Barring an extreme left-hook that brings her all the way west across the state after landfall, our effects here would be limited to breezy showers. If she keeps running all the way to the Eastern Shore or Delaware before making landfall, we might not get a drop of rain.
>>If the left hook is on time and subtle as expected, Isabel comes on shore between Cape Hatteras and Morehead City as planned on Thursday afternoon, moves inland to about Richmond, Charlottesville and Front Royal. This would cause considerable problems along the Outer Banks and Hampton Roads from strong easterly winds and high tides, but maybe not the extreme disaster of the last scenario. Our effects would be moderate -- winds just below tropical storm range (30ish), some higher gusts, and a few bursts of heavy rain. We would feel Isabel but not embrace her. She would be something to talk about but not something to fear.
Right now, the third scenario is the one that's being latched onto. Since I jumped on board the Cape Hatteras-Morehead City ship on Monday, I'm not about to bail out now. Expect some breezy squalls, maybe approaching tropical storm conditions here and particularly east of the Blue Ridge. Usually, the most torrential downpours are on the north and east side of the storm, as is the bulk of any tornado activity. A few small streams or urban areas may experience temporary flooding in our area, but I am not expecting any widespread river flooding as with the remains of Hurricane Juan back in 1985.
After landfall, Isabel will merge with a low pressure trough from the west, and this could keep New England and Canada windy for days. She'll be a memory for us by Friday evening, except for some fall breezes from the northwest. The weekend looks gorgeous. Enjoy it.
September 16, 2003
WEAKER, MORE WESTWARD?
Isabel has weakened this morning; not an unexpected development if you were reading here yesterday. Also, forecast models are showing a more westward and southern path, also not unexpected if you were reading here yesterday. That could have big implications for us.
But there are still about 72 hours before this thing is going to make landfall, and a lot can happen in that time. The one thing I feel real safe about saying is that, barring divine intervention, Isabel is NOT going to go out to sea and miss the United States entirely. The high pressure in the Atlantic is just too strong. The best-case scenario I see is that Isabel continues to weaken and comes ashore as somewhat pitiful minimal hurricane or maybe even a strong tropical storm. I certainly don't expect that, either, but it's within the far realm of possibility.
The particulars on Isabel this morning: As of 5 a.m, Isabel is 660 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., moving northwest at 7 mph. She has 115 mph winds, down from Monday's 140 and her weekend peak of 160. She's on the weak side of Category 3, and will be downgraded to Category 2 if her winds fall 5 mph more.
Isabel has encountered some "westerly shear," which means strong upper level winds out of the west that are ruffling her hair quite a bit. Isabel may also have pulled some dry air into her center, and that's why she doesn't look nearly as pretty this morning as she did yesterday.
Lest we write off Isabel, this shear is expected to continue only for 12-24 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. Also, Isabel is going to cross the Gulf Stream eventually, a warm river of water off the Southeast coast that may give her a shot in the arm. The probability is that we're still looking at a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall, and I would say it's likely we will see at least one more burst of strengthening before Isabel touches a sandy beach somewhere.
A majority of computer models and flesh-and-blood forecasters have latched onto the idea that Isabel comes in between Morehead City, N.C., and Cape Hatteras. The high pressure over the Atlantic appears to be a tad stronger than earlier thought and the low pressure trough over the Midwest a bit slower and farther west. Even places like Wilmington and Myrtle Beach shouldn't completely lose sight of this just yet.
This is important for Roanoke and Southwest Virginia. The more westward it is, the more likely we will see significant wind and rain effects. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is already noting that tropical storm conditions may affect Lynchburg and Danville, with some threat for areas farther west. Right now, the timing appears perfect to play havoc with Virginia Tech's game with Texas A&M Thursday night -- not a trivial concern, considering 70,000 people could be exposed to the elements.
Isabel's expected acceleration is another problem for us. The faster she's moving at landfall, the farther she'll carry her high winds inland. Isabel is expected to be moving so fast eventually that what's left of her will be near Hudson Bay by Saturday!
There are still forecasters and at least one forecast model doggedly holding onto ideas that Isabel will make a direct strike on Hampton Roads or the Delmarva Peninsula, which would just some breezy weather for us, not even as windy as a winter cold front. So I'll keep watching it and keep you up to date daily.
September 15, 2003
ISABEL COULD BE A NIGHTMARE
Following weather is something like watching a baseball game. Inning after inning, there are routine ground balls and flyouts, a base hit here or there, and then all of sudden there's an inning with lots of excitement, good or bad. This week is one of those innings.
Hurricane Isabel will be our obsession this week on this Web page, and I plan to update daily. This morning, she is a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds about 800 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. She is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph.
As you notice, Isabel is no longer a Category 5 hurricane. Although it's possible she could temporarily go back over 156 mph and be a Category 5 storm again, the long-term expectations are a gradual weakening as she speeds up, gets affected by other weather systems, and encounters cooler ocean water.
The consensus is that she's a Category 2 or Category 3 when she makes landfall, which still means winds of 96-130 mph, nothing to laugh at. You see the mayhem caused by 70 mph thunderstorm winds sometimes ... and that's only a few minutes versus hours of hurricane winds.
Today is a crucial day for the forecast on Isabel. It is today that she is expected to begin making her northwest turn that is so ominous for the mid-Atlantic coast. Quite simply, she is finding the gap between a powerful high over the North Atlantic and a low pressure trough over the Midwest. This gap should eventually get Isabel turned in a north-northwest direction, and that points to a strike on the coast of the Carolinas, southeast Virginia or the Delmarva Peninsula -- probably on Thursday.
The Tropical Prediction Center (also known as the National Hurricane Center) is latching onto a forecast track that might be the most nighmarish in terms of damage and risk to lives over a large area.
The TPC forecast track would bring Isabel in about Cape Hatteras and then carries her just barely inland west of Norfolk and Chesapeake Bay. Under this scenario, the high-priced development along the entire length of the Outer Banks of North Carolina would be slammed with 100-125-plus winds and 10-15 foot waves, the greater Hampton Roads area would be battered by a southeast fetch of 80-110 mph wind for hours, and D.C. and Baltimore would be pounded by 60-75 mph winds, at least. And that's not even considering a storm surge that could work its way up Chesapeake Bay and the almost inevitable flooding and tornadoes.
Other computer models and weather experts nudge the track a little farther east -- bringing Isabel in along the Delmarva or possibly as far north as New Jersey -- or a little farther west, bringing her in near Morehead City, N.C. An out-to-sea escape seems to be precluded by that big mother of a high offshore, and the coast from Florida up to Charleston, S.C., appears as if it will be spared by the strength of the low pressure trough inland. That amount of agreement still four days from expected landfall is notable.
It's the squeeze play between the low with its accompanying approaching cold front to the west and the high to the east that will determine the nuances of the storm track. If the low is a little stronger, it will be able to erode the high some and allow Isabel to go a little farther east and hit the coast a little farther north, over Delaware or New Jersey, perhaps. If the high holds a bit better, Isabel turns slower and later and comes in farther south.
My money's on the high pressure holding a bit. I would guess she comes in somewhere between Morehead City and Hatteras, runs inland to about Richmond, Charlottesville, and Harrisburg, Pa. Still, a big mess for a lot of people.
For Southwest Virginia, Thursday and Friday will almost certainly be very windy days, as we will be between a hurricane and a cold front. The farther south on the coast Isabel strikes, the farther west she will track inland and the more squally weather we'll have. A strike a little west of Morehead City could bring tropical storm conditions or even minimal hurricane conditions to our area, with high winds, flooding rains, and scattered tornadoes. Right now, I'm thinking we get some 40ish mph gusts, mostly on the ridges, and some showers, but that eastern Virginia is going to take the brunt of the really stormy stuff.
If you have plans for the Outer Banks or Virginia Beach area from Wednesday through Saturday, my strong advice is to cancel them now. At the best, you'll be caught up in chaotic evacuation traffic fleeing a storm that delivers a glancing blow; at the worst, you'll be smack dab in the middle of a major hurricane.
September 12, 2003
HENRI'S STILL FLOPPIN' AROUND AND ISABEL IS A COMIN'
Isabel is a monster. And Henri's not entirely dead.
Isabel is a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds about 300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. She's storming west. There seems to be nothing that will turn her anytime soon. She can't go out to sea because of a big high pressure system there. It looks like big trouble for the Eastern Seaboard next week. Influences that would push her north seem as if they will come into play much too late to keep her away — but instead, will probably steer her up the coast so that much more than Florida will have to ponder whether a serious investment in plywood is a good idea.
Isabel has run right past Hugo caliber into the rarified air of Camille and Andrew. I think it's unlikely she will be that strong when she becomes a threat to the U.S. coast next week. She will have to cross Fabian's old path where the stirred-up water may have cooled enough to weaken her some, and this has been a season of upwelling and bizarre cool sea temperatures along the Southeast U.S. coast. But those sea temperatures have recovered quite a bit into the 70s (some were as low as the 50s at one time, in mid-summer!), so we may still be talking about a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane with winds well over 100 mph.
If you have plans anywhere on the East Coast next week, especially late in the week, be prepared to cancel them. This is not a storm to play around with. Isabel, even if she weakens some, could leave a coastal city in shambles. If she hits the right place on the coast, she could bring tropical storm-force winds and torrential rains right here to Roanoke. But we get ahead of ourselves.
What used to be Henri has managed to flop back toward the coast like a beheaded swordfish, and rain is swirling around as far west as Richmond. Overnight, we may catch a few showers from this once-tropical storm, now officially just a low pressure area. One weather observer notes that Henri now resembles what Grace was when she hit Texas . . . and Grace was categorized as a tropical storm. Weather bugs can argue the semantics of whether Henri is still tropical or not, but for eastern Virginia, it will mean a soppy day either way.
After all this tropical brouhaha, we may end the month of September with a preview of winter. Not snow, but maybe some frost, as perhaps the first Arctic high pressure of the season invades Canada and maybe the United States. Jury's still out on that ... as it is still is on Isabel's final path. Stay tuned.
September 9, 2003
ISABEL IS A THREAT
Roanoke's weather will be peaceful, mild and blessedly dry for several days. But there are 4 balls in the air in the great Atlantic tropical juggle — or rather, two nerf balls, a burned out torch and a lighted one.
Fabian has graduated to "extratropical" status, which mean he's still gusty and rainy but he has a cold heart instead of a warm one as his spin is caught up in other weather features up near Greenland. But Bermuda will remember him well.
Henri is fighting for his existence off the Outer Banks, a loose conglomeration of clouds and showers with a broad-based, hard-to-define spin that's also becoming more cool than warm. Henri, a tropical depression (depressions only have names if they were once something more), is a contributing factor in our dry spell, helping twirl northeast winds upon us that will give us enough cool mornings that you might see a little more yellow and orange foliage by the weekend. Henri may still regenerate into a tropical storm or into just a plain old low pressure area, and he could still cause some issues for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast.
Tropical Depression 14 is west of the African coast, heading north-northwest toward the central Atlantic, wheezing and gasping, and likely to to be a "never-was."
Then there's Isabel, a category 4 hurricane steaming west-northwestward with 135 mph winds a little more than 900 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Here's the problem — the chess board has changed a lot since Fabian made a turn for Bermuda. High pressure is rebuilding in the Atlantic over Bermuda, which will effectively serve as a forcefield to deflect Isabel westward. Meanwhile, unlike with Fabian, there is not likely to be a strong-enough or well-placed low pressure trough in the eastern U.S. to safely lift Isabel out to sea. The trough will likely be farther west.
All this means Isabel moves farther west than Fabian and turns north later than Fabian.
Short answer: There's an increasing chance that Isabel becomes a threat to the Eastern Seaboard 6 to 9 days out. And since we're talking about a Category 4 hurricane that still has many days to stew, that could be big trouble. Hugo was category 4, for reference.
Before that, there are a number of Carribbean Islands, including Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas that have a nervous eye on what could be the Grand Dame of the 2003 hurricane season.
You can't be too alarmist on long-range hurricane forecasting. A week out, lots of things can change, and it would futile at this point to even nail down a 1,000-mile wide area of influence for Isabel. But if you have East Coast plans from about Sunday onward, I'd keep an eye out on Isabel and be prepared to adjust your schedule accordingly. A category 4 hurricane is nothing to play around with.
September 8, 2003
2 HAS-BEENS, 1 YET-TO-SEE
Hurricane Fabian is moving rapidly into cooler waters and weakening. He's almost out of the picture as he seems headed for a date with southern Greenland as a wet, windy extratropical storm.
Tropical Depression Henri is moving parallel to the southeast U.S. coast and might again become a tropical storm sometime today. But he's headed out to sea away from the U.S.
Hurricane Isabel is a long way off in the open Atlantic, at least 5 days from any land. Keep an eye on her. There are some ominous signs that she could be a threat to the U.S.
September 5, 2003
North Carolina surfing (AP photo)
WAVE BYE-BYE TO FABIAN, HELLO TO HENRI
As you can see from the picture above, Fabian is passing far enough off the coast that people are still enjoying the beach ... but close enough to stir up some gnarly waves, unusual for East Coast surfers. As Fabian makes a close scrape with Bermuda, 4- to 6-foot waves are forecast along the coast. Then Fabian exits stage right and becomes a windy, rainy, chilly storm for the British Isles or Scandinavia.
This may be quite a surfing weekend on the coast, but the next time around, the surfers themselves may have to catch a wave out of town.
Tropical Storm Henri has been crowned in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. With 45 mph winds and a ton of rain, it is expected to cross the Florida peninsula over the next 24-36 hours. Other than flooding and isolated tornadoes, it will not be a big deal for Florida as tropical storms go. But when it re-emerges in the Atlantic ... that's when the questions begin.
Henri is expected to head northeastward parallel to the coast over the next few days, and eventually head out to sea east of Hatteras. With a storm that close to the coast, any slight shift to the left puts it in Savannah or Charleston or Wilmington with little notice. Henri will also be feeding intravenously on the Gulf Stream, a current of warm water that parallels the East Coast. Rather bland tropical systems that have crossed Florida in the past have sometimes erupted into mighty hurricanes in short order when feeding on this sultry saltwater.
Another factor is the upper level high pressure that has settled over our area now, giving us dry, warm days and cool nights. Hurricanes -- intense surface low pressure areas -- actually blossom better under high pressure in the upper atmosphere than under low pressure. That's because the high pressure aloft serves to evacuate the air lifted by the hurricane away from the storm, instead of sinking it downward and breaking it up. That's what we may see with Henri.
And if it gets trapped under the high and stalls, it could sit and stew for days and give forecasters from Long Island to Miami a bad case of indigestion. Hurricanes off the East Coast are known to do loopty-loops and backtracking and all kinds of crazy stuff. Hopefully for meteorological sanity, Henri will decide just to slide in a straight line northeast away from the U.S.
Though our mornings have a hint of autumn in them, the weather pattern over the next 7-10 days looks remarkably warm and dry. The low pressure trough that's dogged us all summer will settle into the Western U.S., providing much needed rains, some cool weather out of Canada, and quite possibly the first serious mountain snows of the season in some areas. It looks like we'll be under a high pressure ridge, which will shut off most rain systems and warm us up.
If we can dodge the tropical systems, we might just finally have a month that is drier than normal.
September 4, 2003
TROPICAL TROUBLE
Always watch the back door.
Our focus was on Fabian, and two other tropical things have happened instead: the remnants of Grace are influencing heavy rains in some parts of Virginia today and there is a new tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico that could be big trouble the rest of the week.
The tropical depression west of Florida is likely to become Tropical Storm Henri. It will most likely cross Florida and enter the Atlantic. There's lot of informed speculation that Henri will sit and spin in the Atlantic for days and days with nowhere to go, trapped under a developing high pressure ridge. If that happens, he will be a major headache to monitor and forecast for many days, as he can sit and stew on the Gulf Stream and make everyone from Key West to Atlantic City jittery.
Fabian is headed for a close call with Bermuda and then, believe it or not, Europe, by then an extra-topical system, but still quite windy and wet. He will be less relevant for us that his 1950s crooner namesake.
September 3, 2003
FICKLE FABIAN
(1) I busted on my call that Saturday would be the latest day of 90-degree weather in Roanoke. Tuesday's high hit 90.
(2) Fabian is almost certainly going to hook out to sea well away from the United States.
(3) Fabian's influence, however, may help stall a few frontal passages through our area.
(4) Lots of tropical moisture will be in place the next several days, meaning big downpours in some places.
September 2, 2003
FOCUS ON FABIAN
Fabian is a roaring Category 4 hurricane this morning about 320 miles northeast of Barbuda in the Leeward Islands. The majority forecast now is to turn it north and pass east of the United States, west of Bermuda, and gradually weaken it over cooler water and under faster upper level winds.
There is some doubt, though. Fabian is riding around a high pressure system in the Atlantic and is expected to be picked up by a low pressure trough that will come into the eastern United States. Some data showed the high pressure to be stronger than expected in the Atlantic ... and the longer and stronger the high holds, the farther west Fabian goes before it turns north. Also, if the low isn't as strong as expected, Fabian might actually push the low around instead of vice versa. The low could even pass Fabian by and leave it marooned and aimless, wandering in the Atlantic until some other air current tugboat pushes him somewhere.
Likely, Fabian is a so-called "fish" storm, hooking wide right just like a Florida State kicker against Miami. But don't write him off yet on the East Coast -- even in Miami! Keep planning that post-Labor Day trip to the Outer Banks this week, but just stay alert to the weather forecasts and be ready to go somewhere inland instead (or maybe farther down the coast). If you don't need to cancel, enjoy the heavier surf on the beach as Fabian passes hundreds of miles to the east.
For Fabian to have much of a direct effect on Southwest Virginia, it would probably have to hit Georgia or South Carolina, which seems very unlikely at the moment. A year ago, the cruel joke was that Myrtle Beach had to be destroyed to break our drought; that's clearly no longer the case. We don't need Fabian's rains.
Strangely, we might actually get more effect off of alleged Tropical Storm Grace that hit Texas on Sunday than we will from Fabian. Most of this moisture will grace the Midwest, but some of it will stream in front of a stalled frontal system in our general direction.
Even though a few meteorlogists dispute whether Grace was really a tropical storm or not, (it was a diffuse and elongated storm instead of compact, barely tropical storm strength), it did serve to help stall that cold front that was supposed to come farther south into the Midwest. The tropics are winning the early autumn battles with the tundra ... not unusual in September. (Meteorological autumn began Sept. 1, by the way.) We'll likely hang on to warm-but-not-hot, sticky, showery weather for the early part of this month and not creep into the frosty realm for a while.
There's another mass of convection in the western Caribbean that bears watching for possible development as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. It would be my guess -- based on Claudette, Erika and Grace -- that it ends up in Texas.
Copyright 2003